The Molfar team sends a daily newsletter about the war in Ukraine.
You can subscribe to the personal daily newsletter AT THIS LINK!
The subscription price is one — $ 30 / month. Free for the media. We donate half of the profits to the humanitarian needs of Ukrainians.
Land route to Transnistria
The appetites of the russian military leadership are growing. In addition to the land border with Crimea, as well as full control over Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a new goal has emerged — a direct land border all the way to Transnistria. There, according to the leaders of the russian army, are also “harassment of the russian-speaking population.” The veracity of this thesis can be questioned as much as you like, but it remains clear: Transnistria is a satellite of russia, and can quickly become part of it.
If russia does take this step, it will have to capture Odessa as well. During the two months of the war, the city was shelled several times, even today there was a terrible shelling of an apartment building — 5 people were killed, including a three-month-old child, 18 others were injured.
Apart from rocket fire, there have been no serious attempts to capture the city. First of all, it was planned to land special soldiers on the shores of the Odessa region, but the russian leadership abandoned this plan, and russia itself has already lost two ships. In addition to these two ships, Ukraine has received missile launching systems from Western partners that can hit long-range sea targets.
Therefore, now the only option to capture Odessa is exclusively by land. This will be possible only if the russian army manages to establish full control over the areas already occupied today. This goal has not yet been achieved: the russian army still controls no more than 50% of the Donetsk region, and does not have full control over the Kherson region. Another reason that does not inspire confidence in russia’s plans — during the two months of war, the occupiers were unable to capture any truly large city.
Cut off from the sea
Taking the whole south of Ukraine is an important goal for russia, it will allow Ukraine to inflict a huge economic blow. We are talking about access to ports: if the russian army takes control of all the southern regions, the country will be left without access to the Black Sea. This is a kind of economic catastrophe.
In 2021, Ukraine sent $47 billion worth of goods for export, and the port infrastructure itself is the basis for sending goods abroad: 70% of cargo passes through the sea. Every day of port blocking is about $170 million in losses. And this without taking into account the fact that part of the port infrastructure has already been destroyed and needs investment to restore.
Another problem is investment activity. Over the past two years, several Ukrainian ports have been transferred to concession and have been able to attract development partners. The port of Olbia, which was received by investors from Qatar, is currently under fire. The war on Ukraine’s southern borders and the constant danger that shelling could recur even in peacetime — reduce the investment attractiveness of Ukraine’s maritime business.
The only option for Ukraine in case of loss of control over the southern regions is the railway. However, its capacity is much smaller, and the rapid restructuring of logistics requires significant investment from both Ukraine and European partners, who are not ready to accept so much cargo by rail.
Airstrike, missile and MRL damage
Luhansk region:
- As a result of the shelling of Severodonetsk, 110 kV power lines were broken. Grads also struck at the nearby settlement of Metolkine.
- […]
Kharkiv region:
- Russian shelling damaged and destroyed more than 10 residential houses. 60 y.o. woman was killed.
- Russian forces hit the Nova Poshta depot. The production facility in an area of ~500 m² and 4 vehicles caught fire. According to the witnesses, the cluster munitions were used, being attached to the parachutes. 6 people were wounded.
- […]
Chernihiv region:
- The outskirts of the village were shelled from the territory of the Russian Federation, ~10 grenades were fired.
Donetsk region:
- Repeated strike on the Regional trauma center.
- As a result of the shelling, 20 residential houses and a shop were damaged, the school windows were blown out. According to Vadym Liakh, the head of the town military administration, cluster munitions were used.
- […]
Mykolaiv region:
- As a result of the shelling, 40 objects were damaged and destroyed, including private and multi-storey residential buildings, educational and cultural institutions, and other infrastructure facilities. The attacks are carried out mainly with prohibited cluster munitions. 3 people were injured.
- […]
Dnipropetrovsk region:
- As a result of the missile strike, the roof was damaged and the windows in the building with agricultural machinery were shattered.
- […]
Kherson region:
- There was shelling of Novovorontsovka and Osokorivka, as well as Mala Shestirnya.
- […]
Zaporizhzhya region:
- During the day, Kamyanske, Orikhiv, Huliaipilske, Chervone, Olhivske, Kopani, Poltavka, Novodanylivka, Malynivka, Shcherbaky, Komyshuvakha, Vesele, Preobrazhenka, Novoandriivka were fired upon. According to the Russian Federation Ministry of Defense statement, in the Chervone region, “three depots of rocket and artillery weapons were destroyed.”
- […]
New laws
Ukraine:
- [Martial law] The National Bank of Ukraine has restricted access to open information about participants in the non-banking financial services market. This is done to prevent the illegal use of information by the aggressor and to enhance security.
- [Support for the economy] From April 22, 2022, the National Bank of Ukraine allowed insurance market participants to buy foreign currency in order to transfer funds in foreign currency for the following types of insurance: 1) medical insurance abroad (transactions for making insurance payments under insurance contracts for persons traveling abroad to the accounts of assisting non-resident companies); 2) “Green Card” (operations of the Motor (Transport) Insurance Bureau of Ukraine on payment of insurance premiums under reinsurance agreements and insurance payments to victims or claims for compensation of such payments under international insurance agreements “Green Card”).
- […]
Russia:
- [Response to the sanctions] The Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation has prepared a list of goods for which the so-called parallel import will be allowed (allows you to import goods into the country without the permission of the copyright holder, the sale of which has begun in other countries of the world).
- [Censorship] The Russian Ministry of Justice has included journalists Alexei Venediktov, Alexander Nevzorov and Sergei Parkhomenko on the list of foreign media agents. Publicist Vladimir Kara-Murza and opposition leader Leonid Volkov have been included in the list of individuals-foreign agents.
- […]
Video of Russian prisoners
- 04/18/2022 — POW occupier from the so-called “L/DPR” reports that the Russian Federation is carrying out forceful mobilization in ORDLO: men are taken directly from the streets, their documents are taken away, they are given unmarked uniforms and taken in closed wagons. According to him, he was in the “construction battalion”: he dug trenches and guarded the checkpoint.
- 04/19/2022 — Fifth exchange of POWs took place: 76 Ukrainians return home.
- […]
This was the free part of the military brief
Read the full text + all archives in the paid version.
In two weeks, the subscription price will be $50/month, subscribe now for $30. We give half of the money for the humanitarian needs of Ukrainians.
In a paid version:
- Airstrike, missile and MLRS damage
- Civilian casualties
- Video of russian prisoners
- New laws
- Occupant’s casualties (est. from Ukrainian General Staff)
- War crimes in a de-ocupied territories
- Alternative loss estimates
- Data archive.
- Analytical charts: occupant losses, chart with known air raid alerts by region and known damage, diagram of known airstrike, missile and MRL damage and known child deaths, diagram of known damage for Ukrainian infrastructure, diagram of average duration of the air alerts in the regions.
