War in Ukraine / April 29

Molfar
6 min readApr 30, 2022

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Big problem of coordination

British intelligence today came to an interesting conclusion: the problem with Russian troops is that they simply do not have the skills to coordinate between units. For example, the offensive of heavy equipment is not supported from the air, and the actions of different groups are not coordinated with each other. This is a big problem for such a full-scale offensive: as a result, there are cases when 1–2 Ukrainian tanks can force a dozen Russians to retreat.

In addition, the Russian command has not been able to hold a broad front, so they are constantly trying to reduce it in order to better organize the coordination and carry out the massive attack on the Ukrainian army. However, this is still not possible: we wrote about the beginning of the second stage of the war ten days ago, but there are still no significant achievements in the Russian army — the troops have not advanced in any of the strategic directions, Azovstal in Mariupol is still stay as fortification for very few Ukrainian soldiers and as a sign of Ukrainian battle for the freedom. In the Izyum direction, the Armed Forces destroyed 30 units of equipment.

The transfer of forces from the north of Ukraine did not help the attack: after the liberation of Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions, Russian troops moved to the east. But, according to intelligence, the groups are completely unmotivated and are in no hurry to return to the offensive, having a negative experience. To gain additional support, Russia is forcibly mobilizing in the so-called DPR and LPR, but without much success: men are fleeing, hiding and giving bribes so that they will not be noticed.

Despite significant losses, Russia continues to attack and does not reduce pressure. According to Western intelligence, in some areas the Russian army still goes several kilometers deep. This is not enough to talk about significant achievements, but it creates additional difficulties for Ukraine, which is forced not only to restrain but also to counterattack already lost positions. In general, the Eastern Front remains without significant changes.

Airstrike, missile and MRL damage

Kharkiv region:

  • Russian troops shelled the village, one of the shells exploded next to the car. The man inside was badly injured.
  • As a result of the shelling by Russian troops, residential buildings and garages were damaged, outbuildings and hangars with a total area of ​​~3k m² caught fire.
  • […]

Zaporizhzhya region:

  • Russian troops shelled the settlements of Hulyaipole, Huliaipilske, Preobrazhenka, Olhivske, Poltavka, Chervone, Malynivka, Novodanylivka, Bilohirya, Mala Tokmachka, Orikhiv, Pershotravneve, Temyrivka, Novoandriivka, Kamyanske. Civilian infrastructure, roads, power plants and residential buildings were destroyed. In Orikhiv, as a result of shelling, wheat caught fire in the building of an agricultural company.
  • […]

Luhansk region:

  • Russian troops shelled the city, a school caught fire as a result.
  • Russian troops shelled Rubizhne, Popasna, Lysychansk, Hirske, Orikhove, Severodonetsk, Zolote, Loskutivka and Katerynivka. A gas pipeline was damaged in Lysychansk, a school and three apartment buildings were damaged in Severodonetsk. 5 houses were damaged in Hirske, 10 more in Orikhove. A 70-year-old man died in Loskutivka, another person was wounded in Lysychansk.
  • […]

Sumy region:

  • Russian troops shelled the area from the territory of the Russian Federation, more than 30 mines were fired at a road fork between three villages, as well as at the outskirts of one of these villages.
  • […]

Donetsk region:

  • Russian troops shelled the city at night, launched an air raid in the morning and continued shelling the city center. Residential buildings and civil infrastructure were damaged.
  • […]

Kherson region:

  • Throughout the day Russian troops constantly have been shelling the entire territory of the village, there are wounded civilians.
  • […]

Mykolaiv region:

  • As a result of Russian troops shelling, 5 civilians got injured.
  • […]

Dnipropetrovsk region:

  • As a result of shelling in one of the villages of the community, residential houses and outbuildings were damaged.
  • As a result of shelling by Russian troops, residential buildings and outbuildings were damaged, and a private car was destroyed.
  • […]

New laws

Ukraine:

  • [War] President of Ukraine decree №285/2022 on the changes into the Regulations regarding the Presidential Commission on citizenship affairs.
  • [Other] The National securities and stock market commission made a resolution on the squeeze-out procedure terms during the action of marital law.
  • [War] The Cabinet of Ministers allocated more than UAH 119b to the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Internal Affairs — more than UAH 28b to provide for the army.
  • [Martial law] The government has simplified registration with the State Employment Service for Ukrainians who lost their jobs during martial law.
  • [Martial law] The Cabinet of Ministers has increased the trade surcharge on diesel fuel and gasoline by 40% to prevent shortages at gas stations.
  • […]

Russia:

  • [Other] President of the Russian Federation decree №245 on awarding national awards for the special labor contributions to the state and the people.
  • [Other] The Ministry of Digital Development proposed to cancel the February government decree that defines the rules for providing subsidies for the development and implementation of a digital literacy program for the general population. The event worth 600 million rubles as part of the Digital Economy national program will be implemented by a subordinate educational institution of the ministry. The corresponding draft resolution is published on the portal of regulatory legal acts.
  • [War] The National Guard proposed to establish a medal for participants in a special military operation in Ukraine, a draft document has been published on the federal portal for draft regulatory legal acts.
  • [Censorship] The Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation excluded Arkady Lyubarev and Lyudmila Kuzmina from the register of mass media performing the functions of a foreign agent.
  • [Response to the sanctions] The Bank of Russia is preparing measures to protect assets frozen abroad, said Elvira Nabiullina, head of the regulator.
  • […]

Video of Russian prisoners

  • 04/27/2022 — In the area of Hulyaipole, Zaporizhzhya, soldiers of the second battalion, led by Dmitro Kukharchuk, repelled the attack of the Russians and captured several Russian prisoners of war. “Mobilized like cannon fodder and demotivated” warriors “from the sub-republic of the” DPR “were so happy that they would no longer fight in the Russian world, they handed over everything they knew about the location of Russian troops and equipment,” said the leader of the “National Corps” Andriy Biletsky.
  • […]

This was the free part of the military brief

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In a paid version:

  • Airstrike, missile and MLRS damage
  • Civilian casualties
  • Video of russian prisoners
  • New laws
  • Occupant’s casualties (est. from Ukrainian General Staff)
  • War crimes in a de-ocupied territories
  • Alternative loss estimates
  • Data archive.
  • Analytical charts: occupant losses, chart with known air raid alerts by region and known damage, diagram of known airstrike, missile and MRL damage and known child deaths, diagram of known damage for Ukrainian infrastructure, diagram of average duration of the air alerts in the regions.

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