War in Ukraine / August 1

5 min readAug 2, 2022

Day 160: An important moment for the Ukrainian counteroffensive

In the last two weeks, the Ukrainian and world press have been talking a lot about the transition of the armed forces of Ukraine to a counteroffensive in the southern direction, namely, about the deoccupation of the entire right bank of the Dnipro and the liberation of the city of Kherson. The General Staff does not officially comment on the information, but there is data that more than 40 villages in the Kherson region have already been deoccupied.

Experts point out that right now is the most important time for the Armed Forces. Ukraine needs to quickly go on the offensive in the south and achieve the goals outlined above — to liberate Kherson. First, it will give a signal to the collective West: the weapons that are transferred to Ukraine are really working effectively and in order to speed up the end of the war, they need to be transferred even more. Secondly, this will be evidence that the war in Ukraine potentially has some movement towards the victory of Ukraine and does not turn into a protracted positional conflict. In this case, the West may lose interest in Ukraine and switch to solving its internal problems.

It is important for Ukraine to avoid the second scenario. Europe has enough problems due to rising energy prices, the United States has Taiwan. If Ukraine does not demonstrate success, support will decrease, and the country’s government may begin to be pressured with the idea that it is time to sit down at the negotiating table.

Despite the achievements of the Armed Forces, the Russians are in no hurry to retreat, but on the contrary, they are strengthening the south of the country. For Putin, the loss of Kherson is a big defeat that can undermine faith in the entire campaign. Therefore, the Russian army will hold the city until the end.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army is unofficially asking for some time: not all plans can be discussed publicly, not all strategies can be shared openly. Therefore, we maintain a strategic attitude and continue to closely monitor the development of events.

Latest investigations of the Molfar team:

Airstrike, missile and MRL damage

Kharkiv region:

Russian troops attacked the territory of a glass factory, three missiles were launched. As a result, the workshops of the plant were damaged, a fire broke out in an area of ~100 m². The security guard of the company was hospitalized.
Russian troops attacked a manufacturing plant, firing three missiles in total. One of the missiles exploded on takeoff, another one was shot down by air defense. The hit damaged the production facility.
Russian troops shelled Saltivka. The shells hit, among other things, the courtyard of a multi-storey residential building and a public transport stop. As a result, the stop was destroyed, cars and houses were damaged. Two people were hospitalized, one of them — a 72-year-old man — died in the hospital. Prohibited cluster munitions were used during the shelling
[…]

Zaporizhzhya region:

During the day, 16 cases of civilian infrastructure destruction as a result of shelling by the Russian army were recorded. Orikhiv, Novodarivka were shelled.
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Mykolaiv region:

Infrastructure facilities, residential buildings, an emergency room, a medical dispensary that served as a humanitarian aid storage was shelled. 3 people were injured.
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Kherson region:

Russian troops hit a van for the evacuation from the village of Starosillya. Two people died instantly, another victim died on the way to the hospital. Five of the wounded are in critical condition, one of them is in a coma.
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Sumy region:

8 a.m. — mortar attack on the Esman community. 12 a.m. — artillery shelling of the Bilopillya community. 2 p.m. — the Esman community mortar shelling. From 6:20 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. — artillery shelling of the Esman community.
[…]

Chernihiv region:

The community was shelled twice, a total of 7 explosions were recorded.
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Donetsk region:

Russian troops shelled Avdiivka, Toretsk, Bakhmut, Zalizne, Soledar, Maryinka, Mykolaivka, Kamyanka, Zoryane, Kodema, Pervomaiske, and Maksymilyanivka. The Russians launched a missile attack on Toretsk. In Avdiivka, buildings in the residential area, a sand pit, the central market area, and car depots were damaged, in Bakhmut — a residential neighborhood and gas stations. In total, 38 civilian facilities were destroyed in the region: 33 residential buildings, including 6 multi-apartment buildings, 2 schools, a tuberculosis dispensary, a campsite, and garages. According to the head of the Donetsk RMA, 3 civilians were killed: 2 in Maryinka and 1 in Bakhmut. 3 people were injured.
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Dnipropetrovsk region:

In total, 60 shells were fired at Nikopol district. As a result of the Marhanets shelling, a house with a woman and 6 children inside was destroyed. The woman was injured. A dozen houses and power lines were damaged, and the water supply was cut off. As a result of the Chervonohyhorivka shelling, 1 person was wounded. 28 civilians’ houses, a garage, household structures, cars, a gas pipeline and power lines were damaged.
The territory was shelled by Russian troops.
A cottage community was shelled from MLRS, houses were damaged. As a result of the Tochka-U strike, the railway infrastructure was damaged.
[…]

This was the free part of the military brief

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Civilian casualties
Occupant’s casualties (est. from Ukrainian General Staff)
War crimes in a de-ocupied territories
Alternative loss estimates
Data archive.
Analytical charts: occupant losses, chart with known air raid alerts by region, known child deaths, diagram of known damage for Ukrainian infrastructure.